IEA Oil Market Report July 2007
Saudi Arabian crude supply is revised up to 8.7 mb/d for May, with a modest cut to below 8.6 mb/d estimated for June. Latest available JODI (Joint Oil Data Initiative) data are backed up by upwardly revised tanker sailing data for May. Weaker earlier May estimates had been based on lower domestic refinery runs due to refinery maintenance. While higher June refinery runs are implied by lower anticipated refinery maintenance, early indications are of an offsetting cut in crude exports. June estimates, as for all the OPEC countries, remain subject to verification as more complete tanker sailing data become available. However, comments from Saudi Oil Minister Naimi in early July tended to reinforce perceptions of production around 8.6 mb/d. Nor has there been any sign of significant change in Saudi production policy for July and August, with term liftings reportedly remaining broadly stable at June levels.
Crude capacity for Saudi Arabia is seen by this report rising to 10.9 mb/d by end-2007 and 11.4 mb/d at end-2008. The Khursaniyah project is likely to start up in December 2007, reaching 500 kb/d of Arab Light capacity by 2008, alongside some 300 kb/d of gas liquids. Initial volumes of new extra light crude are also expected from the Shaybah field expansion and the Nuayyim project by the end of 2008. The two fields combined will eventually add a gross 300 kb/d to Saudi crude capacity. Capacity additions in Saudi Arabia for now are focussed on lighter/sweeter crude grades, before the next major heavy/sour increment expected from the Manifa project from 2011.
Crude capacity for Saudi Arabia is seen by this report rising to 10.9 mb/d by end-2007 and 11.4 mb/d at end-2008. The Khursaniyah project is likely to start up in December 2007, reaching 500 kb/d of Arab Light capacity by 2008, alongside some 300 kb/d of gas liquids. Initial volumes of new extra light crude are also expected from the Shaybah field expansion and the Nuayyim project by the end of 2008. The two fields combined will eventually add a gross 300 kb/d to Saudi crude capacity. Capacity additions in Saudi Arabia for now are focussed on lighter/sweeter crude grades, before the next major heavy/sour increment expected from the Manifa project from 2011.
IEA Oil Market Report July 2007, pg. 20
