BP's recent production data

BP's recent production data, and a different view of future world oil production trends
by Tom Standing
http://www.energybulletin.net/31585.html

Saudi Arabia and OPEC: First off, many people look at the recent trend of Saudi Arabian production and have expressed suspicion that the decline may be geologically based, rather than Saudi Arabia maintaining a balance between supply and demand. The statements and actions of OPEC over the last several months have made it clear that they are taking oil off the market in order to defend $60 oil. (The recent price for “OPEC Basket” oil was around $67.) Saudi Arabia is still the premier swing producer, maybe the only OPEC member who can vary production rates at their discretion. My guess is that this is a market-related reduction and that they could return to their high point of late last year and sustain that rate for many years. They have numerous projects on the board to raise productive capacity, so I would not be surprised if they eventually reach and sustain 10 million b/d. How much higher can SA go? God only knows; not even the most analytical Saudi oilmen can say with certainty. The timing of Saudi's return to producing at capacity, and their future development of capacity, depends on world demand, the ability of non-OPEC producers to increase capacity, and the price that OPEC chooses to defend.