Monday, February 26, 2007

Econbrowser On Saudi Cuts of 1 million barrels per day

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/02/saudi_oil_produ_1.html

James D. Hamilton writes:

That price doesn't look to me like it's being stabilized by the Saudis or by anybody else. In particular, the cuts in Saudi production began in October 2005, when oil was selling for $62 a barrel, and those cuts continued as oil rose to a new high over $75 last summer.


For that matter, the Saudi production numbers themselves don't look to me like they're under the precise control of anybody. Up through the first half of 2005, the Saudis hit
9.5 mbd or 9.6 mbd month after month. I interpreted the stability of those numbers as signaling that the Saudis could hit any target they wanted, and they happened to be picking 9.5 or 9.6. By contrast, the erratic path since is much harder to view as the outcome of some careful manipulations.