OPEC oil output rose in October

OPEC oil output rose in October: Petrologistics
October 24th, 2007
Gulf Times/Doha

OPEC is already raising oil supply in response to record prices and in advance of its deal to increase output from November, a consultant who tracks tanker movements said yesterday.

OPEC’s 10 members subject to output limits, all except Iraq and Angola, are set to pump 27.5mn barrels per day, up from a revised 27.2mn bpd in September, said Conrad Gerber of Petrologistics.

The estimate indicates that OPEC may be relaxing adherence to supply curbs in response to a jump in oil prices, which hit a record high of $90.07 on Friday.
The group on September 11 formally agreed to lift production from November 1
“It’s a surprisingly large increase,” Gerber said. “The Saudis are obviously pushing out more crude in advance of the November increase.”

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, is on course to lift supply to 8.95mn bpd from 8.88mn bpd in September, he said.

Other increases are coming from Iran, which is expected to raise output by 50,000 bpd to 3.95mn bpd and the United Arab Emirates, which is forecast to pump 2.65mn bpd, a gain of 60,000 bpd.

Overall output from the 12-member Opec is set to rise 500,000 bpd to 31.4mn bpd, Petrologistics said, on higher shipments from Iraq and Angola.

Iraqi output is expected to increase to 2.2mn bpd this month, up about 40,000 bpd from September, Gerber said.

Exports are rising because the country is exporting some Kirkuk crude from its northern fields, shipments that have remained sporadic since the US-led invasion in March 2003.

Angolan output, on a rising trend as new fields come on stream, is likely to climb to 1.75mn bpd from 1.6mn bpd in September.

Opec, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, agreed on Sept. 11 to raise output by 500,000 bpd from November 1 in a gesture to consumer nations worried by the economic impact of record prices.

According to Petrologistics, they are now pumping oil at the same level from which they started cutting production in 2006. Opec said the 10 were pumping 27.5mn bpd before the cutbacks began.

Oil prices declined yesterday after the Petrologistics estimate was released.
Oil prices extended losses amid worries that slower US economic growth could dampen global demand, dealers said.

Crude futures scaled dizzy heights last week owing to tight supplies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region.

Prices have fallen on fresh "concerns over economic growth and, in turn, oil demand growth," Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Additional downward momentum has come from Kurdish rebels offering Turkey a ceasefire on Monday.

– Reuters, AFP


OPEC Raising Output Ahead of Nov Output Hike
by Spencer Swartz
Oct 23, 2007

OPEC oil production is expected to rise this month by 500,000 barrels a day from September as the group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, steps up output ahead of OPEC's Nov. 1 deadline to begin providing markets with new supplies, tanker tracker consultant Petrologistics said Tuesday.

The 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump at a rate of 31.4 million barrels a day in October from 30.9 million barrels a day last month.

The group, excluding Iraq and Angola which aren't part of OPEC's quota system, are seen producing about 300,000 barrels a day more than in September at 27.5 million barrels a day, said Conrad Gerber, head of Geneva-based Petrologistics, which bases its figures on movements in the global tanker market.

"We're definitely seeing more production from the Gulf. Saudi Arabia is making more available," Gerber said, noting the kingdom is expected to pump at a rate of 8.95 million barrels a day this month, up 150,000 barrels from September.

Gerber said he didn't believe OPEC would produce in November at the same rate of increase being seen in October. "I don't think we'll go up as much... part of this is the big maintenance program in the United Arab Emirates," Gerber said.

Gerber said non-quota member Angola was expected to boost production by 150,000 barrels a day to 1.75 million barrels a day as new projects enter service in the West African nation.

Nigeria, making incremental headway into returning oil production sabotaged by militant attacks, was seen pumping about 50,000 barrels a day more in October at 2.25 million barrels a day.

Gulf countries Kuwait and the UAE were each seen producing 50,000 and 70,000 barrels a day more this month than in September at 2.62 million barrels a day and 2.65 million barrels a day, respectively.

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, is scheduled to do maintenance at three major offshore oil fields that will ax crude production by 600,000 barrels a day from November for almost a month. State-run Adnoc, which pumps 95% of the UAE's oil, said in late September that it would meet all its term client commitments by "advancing the majority of liftings." Adnoc will do the maintenance, which has been planned for more than a year, at its Upper Zakum, Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif fields.

War-torn Iraq was expected to pump about 60,000 barrels a day more in October than last month at 2.2 million barrels a day, though this could be revised up in coming days, Gerber said.

© 2007 Dow Jones Newswires.

Saudi Arabia issues rules for succession

Saudi Arabia issues rules for succession council
By Andrew Hammond
Oct 8, 2007
(Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah issued rules on Monday guiding the conduct of a body set up last year to regulate political succession in the world's biggest oil exporter.

The Saudi throne has passed from one brother to the next since the death of Abdul-Aziz bin Saud, the founder of the state. With many of his 44 sons now dead or aging, power could soon move onto the next generation; his grandsons.

Western diplomats have welcomed efforts to regulate succession in the Islamic kingdom, which they say is an attempt to avoid leadership disputes, which have erupted in the past.

Unlike many Western monarchies, the throne in Saudi Arabia does not pass automatically from a father to his eldest son. Neither is it decided by seniority, but by a small group of the most powerful Saudi royals.

Saudi Arabia last year announced plans to set up a so-called "allegiance" council which would regulate succession but would not take effect until Crown Prince Sultan, heir to King Abdullah, accedes to the thrown.

Last year's statement said that if the new council rejects a nominated crown prince, it may vote for one of three other princes the king nominates for the title.

Monday's statute did not mention this but appears to ensure that power lies with the living sons of the kingdom's founder since there can be only one grandson on the council for each dead or incapacitated son of Abdul-Aziz bin Saud.

The statute, carried on the state-run SPA news agency, also allows two-thirds of the council to force out any prince who is deemed to be "in transgression" of the statutes, which say members should be at least 22 years old and have demonstrated "probity and competence".

The statute also talks of a "medical committee" but gives few details.

Within 10 days of becoming king, a new monarch must inform the committee of his choice for crown prince or ask the council to make its own nomination.

The Saud family set up Saudi Arabia in 1932 and dominates political life. The country has no elected parliament, rules by strict Islamic law that gives clerics wide powers, and bans political parties and street demonstrations.

The last succession from the late King Fahd to King Abdullah in 2005 was smooth, but there have been crises in the past.

Saudi Arabia's second king, Saud, was deposed in 1964 by his own family when he was deemed incompetent after a power struggle with his half-brother Faisal. Faisal, his successor, was shot dead by a nephew who was then declared officially as insane.

The new council will be "reappointed" every four years and the statutes can only be amended "by royal decree after the consent of the allegiance institution", SPA said.

The statute also says council decisions should be approved by the king but it is not clear what happens if the king opposes committee votes.

King Abdullah, an octogenarian, oversees a country with a growing population of 24 million, including 7 million foreigners, struggling to steer a course between tradition and modernity.

OPEC Raises September Output

OPEC raises oil output slightly in September
By Randy Fabi
Oct 2 (Reuters)

OPEC boosted its oil production in September as crude prices soared to record heights above $80 a barrel, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

Ten OPEC members bound by output targets, all except Iraq and Angola, pumped 26.8 million barrels per day, up 60,000 bpd from August, according to the survey of oil firms, traders, OPEC officials and analysts.

The majority of the increase came from the world's biggest exporter Saudi Arabia, which last month convinced fellow OPEC members to open the taps amid surging oil prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, agreed to raise production by 500,000 bpd from Nov. 1.

"With these high prices, there is no doubt in my mind that OPEC is going to jump the gun and ship out more barrels before Nov. 1, but I haven't seen any proof yet," said Paul Tossetti, director of market analysis at Washington-based PFC Energy.

Oil has traded at around $80 a barrel for the past month, surging to a record high of $83.90 on Sept. 20. Total OPEC output rose to 30.62 million bpd from 30.37 million bpd in August as Iraq and Angola boosted their supplies, according to the survey. Iraq has issued three tenders in a month to sell Kirkuk oil from its northern fields, indicating exports may be stabilising after years of sabotage kept the pipeline mostly idle.

About 7.5 million barrels have been sold via the first two tenders. "That's an extra 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of crude out of Iraq. That is a major change and one to watch," Tossetti said.

Angola has also ramped up output with the start of its Plutonio oilfields. Angolan state oil company Sonangol said on Tuesday it commenced first production in September, with initial output at 80,000 bpd. OPEC is expected to give Angola, its newest member, an output target from Jan. 1.

Following is crude output in millions of barrels a day.

          Sept     Aug         Target
          output   output   output Nov 1*

Algeria      1.38     1.38         1.357
Indonesia    0.83     0.83         0.865
Iran         3.86     3.86         3.817
Kuwait       2.41     2.41         2.531
Libya        1.7      1.7          1.712
Nigeria      2.16     2.16         2.163
Qatar        0.8      0.8          0.828
Saudi Arabia 8.7      8.65         8.943
UAE          2.56     2.56         2.567
Venezuela    2.4      2.39         2.470
OPEC-10     26.8     26.74        27.253
Iraq         2.1      1.95
Angola       1.72     1.68
TOTAL       30.62    30.37

(R)-Revised. *Output targets for November 1 were published briefly on
OPEC's website, but were subsequently withdrawn without
explanation. OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and
apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude
movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti
data includes Neutral Zone. Saudi data excludes oil produced for
Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil.